Category: 538 polls

As the focus of the impeachment affair moves to the U. While there is a small increase in the number of people who believe Trump did, in fact, attempt to coerce Ukraine into investigating his political rival, that shift does not translate to changing attitudes on the inappropriateness of his actions. A key consideration of why public opinion is not moving on impeachment may be the upcoming elections.

Regarding the Republican defense of Trump, that Ukraine attempted to meddle in the elections, less than a third of Americans appear to believe this to be the case including only about a quarter of Republicans. Washington, DC, November 19, - Ipsos and FiveThirtyEight have just launched the first wave of our ground-breaking tracker of public opinion around the Trump impeachment saga.

This survey, using the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, will follow the same nationally representative group of Americans for the next three months to track if, when, and how Americans change their minds on the facts underlying the Trump impeachment inquiry. In our first wave of research, we find that a majority of Americans believe President Trump has committed an impeachable offense although this study does not ask about removing him from office and are following the hearings closely.

Furthermore, most Americans believe that President Trump did engage in most of the alleged actions asking for an investigation of Biden, withholding aid, and covering up information. Additionally, majorities believe that if these things occurred, they are inappropriate. This poll is based on a nationally-representative probability-based sample of 2, adults age 18 or older.

A general population sample of US adults was selected for this study and, to ensure a sufficient sample size among independents, was supplemented with an oversample of adults who had previously identified as Independents or had no preference for any one political party. The study weights, as described in further detail below, adjusted for this oversample using party identification benchmarks from ABC News so that results reflect the general population of US adults.

The first wave of this poll was based on a nationally-representative probability-based sample of 2, adults age 18 or older and included a general population sample of US adults as well as an oversample of Independents and those with no party preference to ensure a sufficient sample size among them.

Wave 2 was fielded to all who completed Wave 1 and had 1, completes.

538's Nate Silver on early 2020 polls versus fundraising: Which matter more?

Wave 3 was also fielded to all who completed Wave 1 and had 1, completes. Wave 6 was fielded to all who completed wave 1 and had 1, completes. The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established probability-based online panel that is representative of the adult US population.

Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS — a database with full coverage of delivery points in the US.

Households are randomly sampled and all persons in the selected households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Ipsos provides selected households who do not already have internet access with a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online.

As a result of our recruitment and sampling methods, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race, education, Census region, metropolitan status, and household income. The demographic benchmarks came from the March supplement of the U.

Due to the oversampling of Independents and those with no party preference, the data were also weighted to adjust for party identification. The weighting categories were as follows:. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples.

In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number.

'FiveThirtyEight' Statistician Nate Silver Reports On The 2016 Election

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees.

We serve more than clients across the world with 75 business solutions. Join the Ipsos public polling team for a monthly briefing on the data trends shaping the election.A copy of this data and descriptions for each column can also be found in pollster-stats-full.

Descriptions for each column are in the table below. Skip to content. Branch: master. Create new file Find file History. Latest commit. Latest commit 1aef Nov 5, Note that different sources define these categories differently and our categorization will often reflect the original source's definition. In other words, these definitions may be inconsistent and should be used carefully.

Where missing, this is estimated from the poll's margin of error, or similar polls conducted by the same polling firm. A sample size of is used if no better estimate is available.

Could Sanders Sweep Iowa And New Hampshire? l FiveThirtyEight

Candidates 1 and 2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll. In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate 1 is the Democrat and simply listed as "Democrat". In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic lead; negative values a Repubican lead.

In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic win; negative values a Republican win. This is calculated only for races in which the top two finishers were a Democrat and a Republican.

Positive values indicate a Democratic bias the Democrat did better in the poll than the election. Negative values indicate a Republican bias. A 1 indicates a correct call and a 0 an incorrect call; 0. You signed in with another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session. You signed out in another tab or window. Update pollster ratings.

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Jun 2, May 30, Pollster ratings Nov 5, Sample size of the poll.Skip to this video now. Play Video. Nate Silver: Low odds Tom Steyer breaks through in crowded race.

Now Playing: Cuomo responds to Trump's criticisms. Now Playing: Roosevelt Navy captain awaits his fate. Now Playing: President Trump threatening to bypass Congress. Now Playing: President Trump to unveil reopening guidelines. Now Playing: Rep. Justin Amash nearing decision on presidential run. Now Playing: White House plays defense after new criticisms.

Now Playing: Some states could reopen before May 1: Trump. Now Playing: Chris Christie says Trump's coronavirus press briefings should be shorter. Now Playing: Is Trump ignoring the Constitution? All rights reserved. Nate Silver analyzes the significance of fundraising in the Democratic primary.

Related Extras. Related Videos. Video Transcript.

538 polls

Transcript for 's Nate Silver on early polls versus fundraising: Which matter more? Debate number two for the Democrats is next week. A few got shut out thanks to polling and fund-raising thresholds set by the DNC. This week, campaigns also filed their fund-raising reports for the second quarter.Silver analyzes polls and predicts election outcomes on his website, FiveThirtyEight. This year's is "maybe the most fascinating nomination race that we've ever seen," he says. With so many political polls coming out, it's hard to evaluate which are most accurate and how much weight we should give them in predicting winners, which is why so many people turn to Nate Silver for his polling analysis.

He's a statistician who's famous for founding the website FiveThirtyEight, which analyzes polls based on accuracy and methodology, aggregates polls and forecasts outcomes. Inhe correctly called all 35 Senate races and the winners of the presidential contests in 49 of 50 states. There's a new "FiveThirtyEight" podcast in which Silver and other reporters from the site analyze polls and primary outcomes and talk politics. In addition to political polls, the site reports on science and health, economics, culture and sports.

Polls are supposed to measure public opinion. But do you think political polls also sway public opinion? There is evidence of something called the bandwagon effect, which is people like to be associated with a winner.

Donald Trump, I think, knows this effect well. Or when you go to any one of his speeches and he spends literally half the speech talking about how great his polls are here and there. He stopped that a little bit after Iowa, but I'm sure he'll start it back up now after he won New Hampshire. So there is some of that. I would say, though, it's more prevalent in the primary than the general election.

The reason being in the primary you have multiple candidates. Until recently, you had 17 Republican candidates.

People usually like several of those candidates, and they have to coordinate and decide - which one of the six Republicans I really like, should I vote for? And it's usually the guy - probably a guy on the Republican side, especially, who's up in the polls. I mean, maybe I like Jim Gilmore, the former governor Virginia. But if I know that only 0. Are voting for him, I'm not really having much of an impact with my vote, whereas choosing between Trump and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush - that will have quite an effect on where the delegates go in my state and how the results are interpreted as we go into other states.

Most people don't know the difference between a good poll and a bad poll, an accurate poll and a poorly done poll. Do you think bad polls have a bad effect? And you have a lot of bad polls who are dependent upon the good polls to even be remotely accurate. So what they'll do is they'll say well, we have some bad data.

Maybe we used a Robo Dialer. Instead of having a human being talk to people, you just set up an automated script.

Maybe they'll call 30, phone numbers, actually only get respondents, so a very low response rate.This suggests the eleventh Democratic debate is unlikely to significantly alter the trajectory of the rest of the Democratic Primary.

This poll is based on a nationally-representative probability sample of adults age 18 or older.

538 polls

Wave 1 of this poll was based on a nationally-representative probability sample of adults age 18 or older. The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS — a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US.

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Households are randomly sampled and all persons in the selected households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Ipsos provides selected households that do not already have internet access with a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online.

As a result of our recruitment and sampling methods, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race, education, Census region, metropolitan status, and household income.

The demographic benchmarks came from the March supplement of the U. The weighting categories were as follows:. The margin of sampling error among those likely to vote in the Democratic primary or caucus is plus or minus 2. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.

The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples.

538 polls

In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees.

We serve more than clients across the world with 75 business solutions. For additional analysis, visit FiveThirtyEight. Join the Ipsos public polling team for a monthly briefing on the data trends shaping the election. Covid was discovered as early as December in China, and by early April many of the restrictions have been lifted, with most people back to work. America is in a crisis. The Covid pandemic is already reshaping daily American life in ways unprecedented and unanticipated.

The US Presidential election is unique in that the campaign is being conducted in the middle of the largest pandemic ever to hit the United States and the world.Sign In. President Trump Job Approval. Rasmussen Reports. Approve 46, Disapprove North Carolina: Trump vs. PPP D. Trump 47, Biden North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham 47, Tillis Approve 43, Disapprove Congressional Job Approval. Approve 30, Disapprove General Election: Trump vs. Biden 48, Trump Trump 49, Biden Cunningham 34, Tillis Arizona Senate - McSally vs.

OH Predictive Insights. Kelly 51, McSally Approve 45, Disapprove Democrats 47, Republicans Approve 21, Disapprove Right Direction 33, Wrong Track Right Direction 38, Wrong Track Right Direction 32, Wrong Track Approve 48, Disapprove Arizona: Trump vs.

Biden 52, Trump Virginia: Trump vs. Biden 51, Trump Connecticut: Trump vs. Biden 47, Trump Approve 50, Disapprove Right Direction 37, Wrong Track FOX News. Biden 42, Trump Approve 49, Disapprove Approve 35, Disapprove Approve 51, Disapprove Approve 44, Disapprove Has this Media Source failed a fact check? These sources are generally trustworthy for information, but may require further investigation. See all Left-Center sources.

FiveThirtyEightsometimes referred to asis a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. Read our profile on United States government and media. The website is funded through online advertising. In review, FiveThirtyEight is different from other polling sources in that they do not conduct the polls, but rather deeply analyze other polls and apply a strict methodology to determine accuracy. For example, Real Clear Politics simply takes the averages of all polls to come up with a score, whereas uses weights on each individual poll based on demographics and much more.

In general, tends to stick to poll related news, but when discussing politics, they usually slightly favor the left through story selection and wording. A factual search reveals that FiveThirtyEight has never failed a fact check. Overall, we rate FiveThirtyEight Left-Center Biased based on story selection that slightly favors the left, but does not favor the progressive left.

We also rate them High for factual reporting due to proper sourcing of information, a solid record with poll analysis and a clean fact check record. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.


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